Post by ehsanulh125 on Jan 9, 2024 1:48:03 GMT -5
Nowadays, more and more economic policymakers and academic economists are taking on the lens of a historical perspective in order to gain insight into the evolution of many complicated processes that determine today's economic trends. Academic papers analyze past shocks, central banks often use long-term time series as the basis for their forecasts. Our article discusses the real added value of the historical economics approach in the field of economic analyzes and forecasts. Several factors led to the appreciation of the economic historical approach. In the field of economic growth and development economics, there is still a contradiction between theory and practice in many places.
Among the macro-based growth Buy Bulk SMS Service theories that explain the differences between countries, there is a lack of a generalizable theory that "almost always" works. In the meantime, the suffocation of micro-based development economics research that explores the differences within countries can be traced back to the questionability of the validity of natural experiments, the cost requirements, and concerns related to the human rights aspect of natural experiments. Therefore, instead of the problem of comparing arbitrary countries, economists are increasingly focusing on the search for variance within the country, which is increasingly supported by the wide digital availability of old, historical data.
The development of digitization, the processing of large amounts of available data, the rapid development of usable software and programs, the availability of deep learning methods in user-friendly software all lead professionals to a historical approach. In calm times, the economic community provides accurate analyzes and forecasts of the state of the world economy. At the same time, during each crisis, professionals suddenly realize from their dreams that the current models and analytical frameworks work well in normal times, but cannot answer all questions in abnormal, often non-linear times. A crisis brings a regime change, but precisely these changes are not seen in the pre-calibrated models. However, we can all notice the structural changes and the patterns of different periods with the help of history, the lessons of which can help us solve the challenges of the present.
Among the macro-based growth Buy Bulk SMS Service theories that explain the differences between countries, there is a lack of a generalizable theory that "almost always" works. In the meantime, the suffocation of micro-based development economics research that explores the differences within countries can be traced back to the questionability of the validity of natural experiments, the cost requirements, and concerns related to the human rights aspect of natural experiments. Therefore, instead of the problem of comparing arbitrary countries, economists are increasingly focusing on the search for variance within the country, which is increasingly supported by the wide digital availability of old, historical data.
The development of digitization, the processing of large amounts of available data, the rapid development of usable software and programs, the availability of deep learning methods in user-friendly software all lead professionals to a historical approach. In calm times, the economic community provides accurate analyzes and forecasts of the state of the world economy. At the same time, during each crisis, professionals suddenly realize from their dreams that the current models and analytical frameworks work well in normal times, but cannot answer all questions in abnormal, often non-linear times. A crisis brings a regime change, but precisely these changes are not seen in the pre-calibrated models. However, we can all notice the structural changes and the patterns of different periods with the help of history, the lessons of which can help us solve the challenges of the present.